Oscar: “Gravity” vs. “12 Years a Slave”

cuaron-affleck-dga_2802578bOscar: “Gravity” vs. “12 Years a Slave”

Last night Alfonso Cuaron picked up one of the biggest precursor awards for his space epic. It wasn’t a complete surprise when Cuaron’s name was announced; he previously received a Golden Globe for “Gravity” as well. If we have learned anything from this win it is that “12 Years a Slave’s” front-runner status is in danger.

“12 Years a Slave” was the early favorite. People loved “Gravity” when it landed in theaters, but people still said “12 Years a Slave” was the film to beat. When December came around and critic’s awards were being announced you often heard one of the two films being named best picture of 2013 with “Her” and “American Hustle” thrown in intermittently.

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Oscar: Final Nomination Predictions

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Oscar: Final Nomination Predictions

Here are our final Oscar Predictions. The nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Our Oscar page will promptly be updated to predicted the candidates most likely to win after the nomination announcement.

Here are our predictions:

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Oscar: Snubs that could happen

Golden-Globes-Nominations-Oscar-IsaacOscar: Snubs that could happen

There will undoubtedly be some major snubs when the Oscar nominations are announced January 16th. Major front-runners have often been pushed aside. Some say this is because voters won’t pick the obvious choice so they can help an underdog get in.

Unfortunately this helps to eliminate a lot of major front-runners. (Which is said to have happened last year to Ben Affleck for “Argo.”)

So really though, no one is completely safe. So here are list of some obvious choices that could get the booth on the morning of the 16th.

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Awards: Are NYFCC and NBR winners “Her” and “American Hustle” destined for gold?

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Awards: Are NYFCC and NBR winners “Her” and “American Hustle destined for gold?

Full Chart of winners after the jump.

It’s not really a rare occurrence that the New York Film Critics Association and the National Board of Review disagree with each other. They are usually the first precursors of the year, and truthfully they often mean very little for later ceremonies. Still, these decisions can have factors in the race to the Oscars.

Yesterday prognosticators were blindsided by “American Hustle” not only winning the NYFCC’s coveted best picture title, but also winning awards for its screenplay and Jennifer Lawrence’s supporting performance. Many had predicted it’d have some success with awards, but not that it’d breakthrough critical darlings “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity.” Early consensus has stated that the film is good, but not that good.
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Awards: Way too early 2014 Oscar Predictions

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Awards: Way too early 2014 Oscar Predictions

This Article is out-of-date! All current Oscar Predictions can be found HERE

So yes, this is way to incredibly early, and it’ll be tremendous fun to revisit this post to see how incredibly wrong these predictions turned out to be. I remember everyone who predicted really early a couple years back thought Amelia that movie about Amelia Earhart with Hilary Swank was going to sweep, and it received atrocious reviews.

Something like that could easily happen. Couple years back Jason Reitman (who had previously received award attention for Juno and Up in the Air) was reported to be doing a film with Charlize Theron. Young Adult met mid to positive reviews.

So here we are now, pretty much pure speculation based on previous years and the names attached to the projects. Release date is a big factor to, only the films at Sundance have been reaffirmed (though it felt nothing was thoroughly raved about this year) Fruitvale and Before Midnight probably getting the most results.

So here’s what I have come up with for next year, last year we had an impressive slate with a Spielberg president biopic, a strong emotional Broadway musical from a previous winner, a hunt for Osama bin Laden picture from a previous Oscar winning director and screenwriter, and a Tarantino western. All which ultimately ended up in the final mix. Continue reading