Oscar Tiers

This page has the tiers for our “Oscar Predictions.” This is a ranking-guide we use when making our predictions.

Last Update: 03/20/19


Picture (03/19/19)

Tier 1
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Tier 2
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The French Dispatch
Harriet
The Laundromat
The Personal History of David Copperfield
The Report

Tier 3
Ad Astra
Fair and Balanced
The Farewell
Ford v Ferrari
The Goldfinch
Just Mercy
The Last Thing He Wanted
Us
Waves

Tier 4
Cats
Dry Run
The King
Knives Out
Lucy in the Sky
Motherless Brooklyn
1917
Nomadland
Pain and Glory
The Pope
Queen & Slim
Radioactive
Rocketman
Uncut Gems
The Woman in the Window

Tier 5
The Aeronauts
Against All Enemies
Ammonite
Clemency
Downhill
Downton Abbey Movie
Frankie
Gemini Man
The Glorias: A Life on the Roads
The Good Lie
Joker
The Kitchen
The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Proxima
Ragedung
The Truth
Waiting for the Barbarians
Where’d You Go, Bernadette?
Yesterday

Bubble
Bad Education
The Beanpole
Bergaman Island
The Best of Enemies
The Boy Who Harnassed the Wind
Ema
Falling
First Cow
Georgetown
Judy
Luce
Native Son
Sergio
Wasp Network
Wendy


Director (03/19/19)

Tier 1
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Tier 2
Pedro Almodovar – Pain and Glory
Greta Gerwig – Little Woman
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

Tier 3
Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
James Gray – Ad Astra
Marielle Heller – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Tom Hooper – Cats
Armando Iannucci – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Sam Mendes – 1917
Jordan Peele – Us
Trey Edward Shults – Waves
Dee Rees – The Last Thing He Wanted
Steven Soderbergh – The Laundromat
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Tier 4
John Crowley – The Goldfinch
Todd Haynes – Dry Run
Ang Lee – Gemini Man
Kasi Lemmons – Harriet
Terrance Malick – Ragedung
Fernando Meirelles – The Pope
Jay Roach – Fair and Balanced
Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie – Uncut Gems
Lulu Wang – The Farewell

Tier 5
Olivier Assayas – Wasp Network
Andrea Berloff – The Kitchen
Danny Boyle – Yesterday
Scott Z. Burns – The Report
Tom Harper – The Aeronauts
Hirozaku Koreeda – The Truth
Francis Lee – Ammonite
James Mangold – Ford v. Ferrari
Melina Matsoukas – Queen & Slim
David Michod – The King
Kelly Reichardt – First Cow
Marjane Satrapi – Radioactive
Joe Talbot – The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Bubble
Benedict Andrews – Against All Enemies
Kantemir Balagov – The Beanpole
Greg Barker – Sergio
Chinoyne Chukwu – Clemency
Bill Condon – The Good Liar
Dexter Fletcher – Rocketman
Ciro Guerra – Waiting for the Barbarians
Rian Johnson – Knives Out
Ira Sachs – Frankie
Lorene Scafaria – Hustlers
Julie Taymor – The Glorias: A Life on the Roads
Alice Winocour – Proxima
Joe Wright – The Woman in the Window
Benh Zeitlin – Wendy


Lead Actor (03/19/19)

Tier 1
Robert de Niro – The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver – The Report

Tier 2
Michael B. Jordan – Just Mercy
Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Jonathan Pryce – The Pope
Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Tier 3
Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Timothee Chalamet – The King
Taron Egerton – Rocketman
Daniel Kaluuya – Queen & Slim
Edward Norton – Motherless Brooklyn
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Tier 4
Adam Driver – Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
Lucas Hedges – Waves
Brad Pitt – Ad Astra
Mark Ruffalo – Dry Run

Tier 5
Matt Damon – Ford v. Ferrari
Winston Duke – Us
Ansel Elgort – The Goldfinch
Jimmy Fails – The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Will Ferrell – Downhill
Henry Golding – Monsoon
Hugh Jackman – Bad Education
Ian McKellen – The Good Lie
Viggo Mortensen – Falling
Wagner Moura – Sergo
Liam Neeson – Norman People
Bill Nighy – Hope Gap
Himesh Patel – Yesterday
Eddie Redmayne – The Aeronauts
Sam Rockwell – The Best of Enemies
Mark Rylance – Waiting for the Barbarians
Christoph Waltz – Georgetown

Bubble
Javier Bardem – Molly
Daniel Craig – Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis – Jojo Rabbit
Henry Golding – Last Christmas
Jack O’Connell – Against All Enemies
Edgar Ramirez – Wasp Network
Tim Roth – Luce


Lead Actress (03/19/19)

Tier 1
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Charlize Theron – Fair and Balanced

Tier 2
Amy Adams – The Woman in the Window
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Anne Hathaway – The Last Thing He Wanted
Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Tier 3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Downhill
Lesley Manville – Normal People
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit
Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Rosamund Pike – Radioactive
Natalie Portman – Lucy in the Sky
Kristen Stewart – Against All Enemies
Kate Winslet – Ammonite
Alfre Woodard – Clemency
Renee Zellweger – Judy

Tier 4
Annette Bening – Hope Gap
Juliette Binoche – The Truth
Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette?
Penelope Cruz – Wasp Network
Catherine Deneuve – The Truth
Isabelle Huppert – Frankie
Felicity Jones – The Aeronauts
Helen Mirren – The Good Lie
Julianne Moore – The Glorias: A Life on the Roads
Emma Thompson – Late Night
Naomi Watts – Luce

Tier 5
Gemma Arterton – Summerland
Jessie Buckley – White Rose
Rose Byrne – Limited Partners
Taraji P. Henson – The Best of Enemies
Scarlett Johansson – Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
Keira Knightley – Misbehaviour
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
Melissa McCarthy – The Kitchen
Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
Susan Sarandon – Blackbird
Jodie Turner-Smith- Queen & Slim
Constance Wu – Hustlers

Bubble
Emilia Clarke – Last Christmas
Elle Fanning – Molly
Gong Li – Saturday Fiction
Eva Green – Proxima
Alicia Vikander – The Glorias: A Life on the Roads


Supporting Actor (03/20/19)

Tier 1
Willem Dafoe – The Last Thing He Wanted
John Lithgow – Fair and Balanced
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollwyood

Tier 2
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Tier 3
Sterling K. Brown – Waves
Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy
Al Pacino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

Tier 4
Peter Capaldi – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch
Timothee Chalamet – Little Women
Anthony Hopkins – The Pope
Ian McKellen – Cats
Gary Oldman – The Woman in the Window
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Lakeith Stanfield – Uncut Gems
Jeffrey Wright – The Goldfinch

Tier 5
Jamie Bell – Rocketman
Benicio Del Toro – The French Dispatch
Bruce Dern – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jon Hamm – The Report
Kelvin Harrison Jr. – Luce
Ethan Hawke – The Truth
Hugh Laurie – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Anthony Mackie – Against All Enemies
Tim Robbins – Dry Run
Sam Rockwell – Jojo Rabbit

Bubble
Aneurin Banard – The Goldfinch
Antonio Banderas – The Laundromat
Matt Dillon – Fonzo
Jon Hamm – Lucy in the Sky
Richard Madden – Rocketman
Juan Minujin – The Pope
James Norton – Little Women
Josh O’Connor – Hope Gap
Pedro Pascal – Wasp Network
Robert Pattinson – The King
Chris Rock – Molly
Michae Shannon – Knives Out
David Strathairn – Nomadland


Supporting Actress (03/20/19)

Tier 1
Annette Bening – The Report
Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Tier 2
Laura Dern – Little Women
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Janelle Monae – Harriet
Meryl Streep – The Laundromat

Tier 3
Penelope Cruz – Pain and Glory
Anna Paquin – The Irishman
Octavia Spencer – Luce
Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey
Tilda Swinton – The Personal History of David Copperfield

Tier 4
Jamie Lee Curtis – Knives Out
Judi Dench – Cats
Dakota Fanning – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Anne Hathaway – Dry Run
Nicole Kidman – Fair and Balanced
Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch
Brie Larson – Just Mercy
Frances McDormand – The French Dispatch
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Meryl Streep – Little Women
Kate Winslet – Blackbird

Tier 5
Ellen Burstyn – Lucy in the Sky
Linda Cardellini – Fonzo
Toni Collette – Knives Out
Bryce Dallas Howard – Rocketman
Lily James – Yesterday
Idina Menzel – Uncut Gems
Bette Midler – The Glorias: A Life on the Roads
Elisabeth Moss – Us
Sarah Paulson – The Goldfinch
Margot Robbie – Fair and Balanced
Alicia Vikander – The Glorias: A Life on the Roads
Emma Watson – Little Women
Michelle Yeoh – Last Christmas
Zhao -Shuzhun – The Farewell

Bubble
Annette Bening – Hope Gap
Penelop Cruz – Wasp Network
Tiffany Haddish – The Kitchen
Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Misbehaviour
Julianne Moore – The Woman in the Window
Emma Thompson – Last Chirstmas
Lorraine Toussaint – The Glorias: Life on the Roads
Mia Wasiwowska – Blackbird

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