Oscar: Winner Predictions – September 2017

I have just finished updating the Oscar Predictions. I know we are in the midst of multiple film festivals and gathering new information everyday, but I couldn’t help get a jump on it with all the great new films that have been seen.

You can see our full Oscar predictions with alternates here.

For this blog post, I will go ahead and give my early winner predictions with the nominees I am currently predictions:

Picture
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
The Post
Downsizing
The Florida Project
Last Flag Flying

Director
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg – The Post
Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name
Joe Wright – Darkest Hour

Lead Actor
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Denzel Washington – Roman Israel, Esq.
Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes

Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep – The Post
Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name
Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water
Christoph Waltz – Downsizing
Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying

Supporting Actress
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Melissa Leo – Novitiate
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Animated Feature
Coco
Cars 3
The Lego Ninjago Movie
Ferdinand
The Lego Batman Movie

Cinematography
Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema
Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins
The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen
Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel
Wonderstruck – Edward Lachman

Costume Design
The Greatest Showman
Beauty and the Beast
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Wonderstruck

Documentary Feature
City of Ghosts
Visages, Villages
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Trophy
Dawson City: Frozen Time

Film Editing
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Roman Israel, Esq.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049

Music (Original Score)
The Post – John Williams
The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer
Darkest Hour – Dario Marianelli
Wonderstruck – Carter Burwell

Production Design
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Greatest Showman

Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour

Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Valerian and the City of 1000 Planets

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Call Me by Your Name
Last Flag Flying
Darkest Hour
The Death of Stalin
Molly’s Game

Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Post
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Florida Project

 

Here’s what the winning tally would look like:

Dunkirk 6

Blade Runner 2049 3

The Post 2

Call Me by Your Name 1
City of Ghosts 1
Coco 1
Darkest Hour 1
Downsizing 1
The Florida Project 1
The Greatest Showman 1
The Shape of Water 1


As things stand now I feel like the narrative will be The Shape of Water vs. Dunkirk.

I hated the feeling of realizing I was only handing The Shape of Water one Oscar, but for some reason I believe that’s how the momentum will shift.

I think everyone will be really high on The Shape of Water coming into award season. I think it will win a lot of  the critic groups as well as The Florida Project and Call Me by Your Name.

While critic groups will favor those two films, guilds will highlight Darkest Hour and Dunkirk. The final pull of the guilds usual brings favorability to the technically impressive.

Dunkirk winning both Best Picture and Director without a screenplay nomination would be more reminiscent of Titanic which swept up a lot of awards, mainly for its technical achievements.

Dunkirk is already guaranteed for sound nominations. Hell, you can probably throw in editing for it too.

The Shape of Water will become a heavy favorite toward the end of the year. The Post will meet its late deadline, but become staggering with awards similar to The Hateful Eight or Silence.

With all the hype that will be built around The Shape of Water, people will be reminded of that one great film they saw months ago once Dunkirk begins appearing at these multiple guilds.

I’d hate to see The Shape of Water get the dreaded ‘overrated’ label that La La Land got, but that’s kind of the direction that I’m predicting. As long as Warner Bros. enters the race quietly with Dunkirk.

 

 

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