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Oscars: Updated Predictions – April

So I finally updated these. A few things have cleared up, but even almost halfway into 2016 there are still many question marks.

If I had to make a super early call though, I’d say “The Birth of a Nation” is probably your Best Picture winner this year. “Silence,” “Billy Lynn” and other will give it a run though.

Keep checking our the Oscar page for the most updated predictions!

the-birth-of-a-nation.26554.16612_BirthofaNation_still1_NateParker_ArmieHammer_JaysonWarnerSmith__byElliotDavisPicture
The Birth of a Nation
Silence
Loving
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Story of Your Life
Fences
Sully
The Light Between Oceans
La La Land
Passengers

Alternates
The Founder
Allied
Everybody Wants Some
Lion
Wilson
Richard Pryor: Is it Something I Said?
Finding Dory
Deepwater Horizon
The Girl on the Train

Dark Horses
Collateral Beauty
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
LBJ
Nocturnal Animals
Untitled Warren Beatty Project

dt.common.streams.StreamServerDirector
Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation
Martin Scorsese – Silence
Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Jeff Nichols – Loving
Denis Villeneuve – Story of Your Life

Alternates
Denzel Washington – Fences
Clint Eastwood – Sully
Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans
Robert Zemeckis – Allied
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Morten Tyldum – Passengers

Dark Horses
Jonathan Dayton, Valeria Faris – Battle of the Sexes
Colin Trevorrow – The Book of Henry
Warren Beatty – Untitled Warren Beatty Project
David Frankel – Collateral Beauty
Stephen Frears – Florence Foster Jenkins
David MacKenzie – Hell or High Water
Stephen Gaghan – Gold
John Favreau – The Jungle Book
James Ponsoldt – The Circle

silence-martin-scorsese-andrew-garfield-570x285Lead Actor
Andrew Garfield – Silence
Tom Hanks – Sully
Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation
Woody Harrelson – Wilson
Denzel Washington – Fences

Alternates
Bryan Cranston – Wakefield
Woody Harrelson – LBJ
Michael Keaton – The Founder
Joe Alwyn – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Will Smith – Collateral Beauty
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Mike Epps – Richard Pryor: Is it Something I Said?
Warren Beatty – Untitled Warren Beatty Project

Dark Horses
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals
Brad Pitt – Allied
John Goodman – Patriots Day
Liev Schreiber – The Bleeder
Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Logan Lerman – Indignation

LovingBannerLead Actress
Ruth Negga – Loving
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Amy Adams – Story of Your Life
Emma Stone – La La Land
Lupita Nyong’o – Queen of Katwe

Alternates
Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane
Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals
Alicia Vikander – The Light Between Oceans
Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers
Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
Tika Sumpter – Southside with You
Jessica Chastain – The Zookeeper’s Wife

Dark Horses
Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship
Marion Cotillard – Allied
Emma Thompson – Alone in Berlin
Elle Fanning – The Neon Demon
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Naomi Watts – The Book of Henry
Alicia Vikander – Tulip Fever
liam-neeson-explains-frail-appearance-says-he-lost-20-pounds-for-scorseses-silenceSupporting Actor
Liam Neeson – Silence
Armie Hammer – The Birth of a Nation
Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Michael Shannon – Loving
Jim Carrey – The Bad Batch

Alternates
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Jacob Tremblay – The Book of Henry
John Goodman – The Coldest City
Denzel Washington – The Magnificent Seven
Nick Offerman – The Founder
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Tracy Letts – Indignation
André Holland – Moonlight

Dark Horses
Adam Driver – Silence
Jeremy Renner – Story of Your Life
Mark Wahlberg – Patriots Day
Ed Harris – Untitled Warren Beatty Project
Zac Efron – The Disaster Artist
J.K. Simmons – La La Land
Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie

Supporting Actress
Gabrielle Union – The Birth of a Nation
Viola Davis – Fences
Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ

Alternates
Kate Hudson – Richard Pryor: Is it Something I Said?
Kate Winslet – Collateral Beauty
Annette Bening – Untitled Warren Beatty Project
Laura Dern – The Founder
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Lily Collins – Untitled Warren Beatty Project
Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls
Laura Dern – Wilson

Dark Horses
Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women
Shailene Woodley – Snowden
Gina Rodriguez – Deepwater Horizon
Rebecca Ferguson – The Girl on the Train
Aunjanue Ellis – The Birth of a Nation
Dale Dickey – Hell or High Water
Margot Robbie – Suicide Squad

finding-dory-xlargeAnimated Feature Film
Finding Dory
April and the Extraordinary World
Zootopia
Moana
Phantom Boy

Alternates
Kubo and the Two STrings
Storks
Kung Fu Panda 3
Sing
Sausage Party
The Secret Life of Pets

Dark Horses
Ice Age: Collision Course
Batman: The Killing Joke
Nation Awakes
Trolls
Ratchet and Clank
The Angry Birds Movie
Norm of the North

silence-andrew-garfield-entertainment-weeklyCinematography
Silence – Rodrigo Prieto
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – John Toll
Passengers  – Rodrigo Prieto
Story of Your Life – Bradford Young
Allied – Don Burgess

Alternates
The Birth of a Nation – Elliot Davis
The Jungle Book – Bill Pope
La La Land – Linus Sandgren
The Lost City of Z – Darius Khondji
Sully – Tom Stern
Untitled Warren Beatty Project – Caleb Deschanel

Dark Horses
Lion – Greg Fraser
American Pastoral – Martin Ruhe
The Bad Batch – Lyle Vincent
Collateral Beauty – Maryse Alberti
The Light Between Oceans – Adam Arkapaw
The Girl on the Train – Charlotte Bruus Christensen
Loving – Adam Stone
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Greg Fraser
The Circle – Matthew Libatique

silence-movie-2016-liam-neeson-scorseseCostume Design
Silence
The Birth of a Nation
La La Land
The Lost City of Z
Love & Friendship

Alternates
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
The Magnificent Seven
Tulip Fever
The Huntsman: Winter’s War
Fences
Untitled Warren Beatty Project
Allied

Dark Horses
Florence Foster Jenkins
Warcraft
Loving
The Light Between Oceans
A United Kingdom
LBJ
American Pastoral

rogue-one-trailer-breakdown-700x300Film Editing
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Birth of a Nation
La La Land
Silence
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Alternates
Story of Your Life
Sully
Deepwater Horizon
Allied
The Girl on the Train
Fences
Patriots Day
Passengers
The Jungle Book

Dark Horses
The Magnificent Seven
Untitled Warren Beatty Project
Midnight Special
The Bad Batch
Lion
The Lost City of Z

silence-andrew-garfield-entertainment-weeklyMakeup and Hairstyling
Silence
The Birth of a Nation
Star Trek Beyond

Alternates
LBJ
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
The Huntsman: Winter’s War
Suicide Squad
Love & Friendship
Sully
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Dark Horses
Doctor Strange
The Magnificent Seven
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Tulip Fever
Warcraft
Fences
The Lost City of Z
Loving
Assassin’s Creed
The Bad Batch

story-of-your-life_0
Music (Original Score)

Story of Your Life – Jóhann Jóhannsson
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Alexandre Desplat
The BFG – John Williams
The Birth of a Nation – Henry Jackman
Midnight Special – David Wingo

Alternates
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – James Newton Howard
Finding Dory – Thomas Newman
Florence Foster Jenkins – Alexandre Desplat
The Light Between Oceans – Alexandre Desplat
The Magnificent Seven – James Horner
Wilson – Jon Brion
Loving – David Wingo

Dark Horses
Lion – Volker Bertelmann, Dustin O’Halloran
The Book of Henry – John Schwartzman
La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
The Founder – Carter Burwell
The Jungle Book – John Debney
Tulip Fever – Danny Elfman
Zootopia – Michael Giacchino
Nocturnal Animals – Abel Korzeniowski

Films without composers not considered.

NErOM523JAimuv_3_bProduction Design
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Passengers
The Jungle Book
Silence
The Lost City of Z

Alternates
The Birth of a Nation
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
La La Land
Untitled Warren Beatty Film
Tulip Fever
Lion
Allied
Story of Your Life

Dark Horses
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Doctor Strange
The Light Between Oceans
American Pastoral
Alone in Berlin
A United Kingdom
The Circle

Star-Wars-Rogue-One-970x539Sound Editing
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Story of Your Life
Passengers
La La Land

Alternates
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Sully
Deepwater Horizon
Silence
Allied
Midnight Special
Patriots Day

Dark Horses
Star Trek Beyond
The Circle
Suicide Squad
The Magnificent Seven
The Birth of a Nation
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Doctor Strange
Captain America: Civil War

Sound Mixing
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Story of Your Life
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Passengers
La La Land

Alternates
The Jungle Book
The Birth of a Nation
Sully
Silence
Deepwater Horizon
Patriots Day
Midnight Special
Allied

Dark Horses
Suicide Squad
Stronger
The Magnificent Seven
Doctor Strange
Star Trek Beyond
Captain America: Civil War
The Lost City of Z

MV5BMTkyNTUxMDczMF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMTUzNDA4NjE@._V1_Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Passengers
Story of Your Life
Doctor Strange

Alternates
Captain America: Civil War
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Star Trek Beyond
Deepwater Horizon
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Suicide Squad
The BFG

Dark Horses
Midnight Special
The Legend of Tarzan
The Circle
X-Men Apocalypse
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Huntsman: Winter’s War
Mena
Assassin’s Creed
the-birth-of-a-nation.26554.16612_BirthofaNation_still1_NateParker_ArmieHammer_JaysonWarnerSmith__byElliotDavisWriting (Adapted Screenplay)
The Birth of a Nation – Nate Parker
Silence – Jay Cocks
Story of Your Life – Eric Heisserer
Fences – August Wilson
Wilson – Daniel Clowes

Alternates
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – Jean-Christophe Castelli
The Light Between Oceans – Derek Cianfrance
Sully – Todd Komernicki
Lion – Luke Davies
The Girl on the Train – Erin Cressida Wilson
Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford
The Lost City of Z – James Gray
Indignation – James Schamus

Dark Horses
Patriots Day – Eric Johnson, Paul Tamasy
True Crimes – Jeremy Brock
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins
Love & Friendship – Whit Stillman
Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder
American Pastoral – John Romano
Stronger – John Pollono

maxresdefaultWriting (Original Screenplay)
Everybody Wants Some – Richard Linklater
Loving – Jeff Nichols
Untitled Warren Beatty Project – Warren Beatty
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
LBJ – Joey Hartstone

Alternates
Richard Pryor: Is it Something I Said? – Bill Condon
Southside with You – Richard Tanne
Passengers – Jon Spaihts
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
Deepwater Horizon – Matthew Michael Carnahan, J.C. Chandor, Matthew Sand
Collateral Beauty – Alla Loeb
The Founder – Robert D. Siegel

Dark Horses
Little Men – Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias
The Book of Henry – Gregg Hurwitz
Allied – Steven Knight
The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou
Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
Finding Dory – Andrew Stanton, Victoria Strouse
The Bad Batch – Ana Lily Amirpour
Battle of the Sexes – Simon Beaufoy

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9 thoughts on “Oscars: Updated Predictions – April

  1. I feel that Fantastic Beasts and where to find them will AT LEAST get one nomination at the academy awards, The huntsman had more? really?

    1. Huntsman will likely fall off after I do some final tweaks. I think Fantastic Beasts won’t get much unfortunately. Historically, the Academy has been lukewarm to the Harry Potter franchise and other popular fantasy franchise movies.

      1. But it will 100 percent get a nomination in a technical category or original score. Also Alice through the looking glass will 100% get a nomination for costume and visual effects

          1. Alice will 100% for costume though, have you seen the trailer, the costumes are amazing and the visual effects look amazing. And for fantastic beasts the score in the two trailers were great and the Harry potter franchise always do well in technical categories. that is why I am saying 100%

            1. I’m not on board. As far as Alice I think the release date is too early. It has a chance for costumes, but I’m not ready to stack it against current competition. I’m predicting reviews won’t be good too. Fantastic Beasts has its best chance in Score, but again Score is extremely stacked this year, Visual Effects I think has too much competition as well. Historically about half of the HP films have received Oscar nominations, makeup would be another possibility, but nothing in the trailer indicated it to be in the mix at this time.

  2. Where’s Free State of Jones? The footage shown at CinemaCon was impressive. It’s a period biopic with a black female lead (Gugu), an Oscar winning male lead (McConaughey), Mahershala Ali in a key supporting role and the underrated Keri Russell in a key supporting female role. And Gary Ross has already had 4 nominations so the Academy loves him and this is his passion project which he worked on for 10 years.

    1. Free State of Jones is a wildcard. Not in love with the bts talent, they don’t all have a great Oscar record. Also the release date was early then later. It’s hard to tell if this is a lack/gain of studio confidence. I think Free State of Jones will ultimately be a visual crowd pleaser. It could definitely pick up some techs, but this early in I have more confidence in the films I have listed. Watch out for Mahershala Ali in Moonlight.

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