Okay, yes, I know I’m technically an Oscar blogger too, but hell I’m telling you now not to listen to me as well. The best we can tell you is that “Best Picture” will be either awarded to “The Big Short,” “The Revenant,” “Spotlight,” or hell, even “Mad Max” has a chance.
The Producer’s Guild completely shifted the momentum from “Boyhood” to “Birdman” last year, but this year is incredibly different. “Spotlight” didn’t have too much momentum, and it has plenty of time to be that underdog the rises back up.
My two cents? Watch the guilds. SAG is “Spotlight” vs. “Big Short;” I’m calling “Big Short.” WGA comes around “Big Short” again, which is the easy adapted screenplay front-runner. But DGA? Is “Big Short enough of a directorial effort? No, I don’t think so, but momentum can easily get McKay that award.
I think Miller is too bold for the DGA, as admired as he is, so that leaves Iñárritu. But will the Academy vote on a split? If DGA goes Iñárritu I think we can expect a split between the two “The Revenant” and “The Big Short.” But again, don’t listen to me. I know nothing. No one knows anything. Go to bed. Accept the mystery.