A lot of what happens in the pre-cursor awards will determine the outcome of the bigger ceremonies such as the Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the Oscars.
Before the end of the year we will have a couple of these. These predictions can be pretty bold cause many of these critics groups are fairly unpredictable.
We looked at the National Board of Review Award, the New York Film Critics Circle, the LA Film Critics Association, the Screen Actors Guild Nominees, and the Critics Choice Award Nominees.
National Board of Review
- Room wins Best Film. (A Most Violent Year won last year; Her in 2013.)
- Larson wins Actress, Trembaly wins Supporting Actor
- Carell wins Best Actor for The Big Short
- Rooney Mara gets her first of (possibly) many Supporting Actress wins.
- Son of Saul wins Foreign Film, Anomalisa edges Inside Out for Animated, Hunting Ground wins Documentary
- Spotlight and Anomalisa grab Original/Adapted Screenplay
- Truth wins Ensemble.
- NBR Top Films: Anomalisa, Spotlight, The Revenant, Joy, The Hateful Eight, Room, The Big Short, Star Wars, Inside Out, Mad Max.
New York Film Critics Circle
- Spotlight wins (first of many) Best Picture.
- Tom McCarthy edges director over Iñárritu
- Lead Acting winners Röhrig/Blanchett (for both Truth and Carol)
- Supporting Acting winners Elba/Mara
- Sicario edges Revenant for Cinematography
- Anomalisa edges Inside Out for Animated, Hunting Ground wins Documentary, Son of Saul wins Foreign.
LA Film Critics Association
- They authoritatively decide to run Elba as a Lead Actor
- Just kidding (but still possible)
- Anomalisa wins Best Picture, Mad Max as an alternate
- George Miller wins Director over Todd Haynes
- Röhrig wins Actor over DiCaprio
- Blanchett (for both films) edges Rampling
- Benicio Del Toro wins Supporting Actor over Elba (or a Spotlight guy?)
- Rachel Weisz wins Supporting Actress for Youth over Rooney Mara.
- Anomalisa wins screenplay over Mad Max
- Sicario wins Cinematography, Revenant as an alternate
- Mad Max wins Production Design, Editing
- Sicario wins Score over The Hateful Eight
- The Look of Silence dethrones Hunting Ground for Documentary.
- Anomalisa overtakes Inside Out again. (Watch for The Prophet though)
Screen Actors Guild Nominations
- Ensemble Nominees: Hateful Eight, Joy, The Martian, Revenant, Spotlight (maybe sub Steve Jobs/Big Short for Martian)
- Lead Actor: DiCaprio/Fassbender/Redmayne/Damon/Smith
- Lead Actress: Blanchett/Larson/Lawrence/Mulligan/Ronan
- Supporting Actor: de Niro/Elba/Keaton/Ruffalo/Rylance
- Supporting Actress: Leigh/Mara/Rossellini/Vikander/Winslet
Broadcast Film Critics Association Nominations
- Best Picture: Big Short/Carol/Hateful Eight/Joy/Mad Max/Martian/Revenant/Room/Spotlight/Steve Jobs (Bridge of Spies snubbed)
- Actor: Carell/Damon/DiCaprio/Fassbender/Redmayne/Smith
- Actress: Blanchett (Carol)/Larson/Lawrence/Mulligan/Rampling/Tomlin
- Sup Actor: de Niro/Elba/Keaton/Ruffalo/Rylance/Tremblay
- Sup Actress: Ladd/Leigh/Mara/Rossellini/Vikander/Winslet
- Young Actor/Actress: Attah and Trembaly are definites. Then maybe the entire Star Wars youth? The girl from Steve Jobs.
- Acting Ensemble: Big Short/Hateful Eight/Joy/Martian/Revenant/Spotlight
- Director: Haynes/Iñárritu/McCarthy/Russell/Spielberg (despite Picture snub)/Tarantino
- Org Screenplay: Bridge of Spies/Hateful Eight/Inside Out/Joy/Spotlight; Adpt. Screenplay; Anomalisa/Carol/Martian/Revenant/Room/Steve Jobs
- Cinematography: Bridge of Spies/Carol/Hateful Eight/Revenant/Sicario
- Art Direction: Bridge of Spies/Cinderella/Hateful Eight/Revenant/Star Wars
- Editing: Joy/Mad Max/Revenant/Spotlight/Steve Jobs
- Costumes: Cinderella/Danish Girl/Hateful Eight/Mad Max/Star Wars
- Hair and Makeup: Danish Girl/Hateful Eight/Mad Max/Revenant/Star Wars
- Effects: Jurassic World/Mad Max/Martian/Spectre/Star Wars
- Animated: Anomalisa/Good Dinosaur/Inside Out/Peanuts/Shaun the Sheep Movie