Oscars: Final Predictions – 2015

maxresdefaultOscars: Final Predictions – 2015

The 2015 Academy Awards ceremony begins this Sunday, February 22nd at 8:30 p.m. ET.

This will be the first year that The Media 10 will live blog the ceremony. We will create a post on the Home Page just before 8:30 p.m. ET. Keep hitting refresh for updates on the ceremony, winners, and monitor how the Oscar prognostication world is handling this year’s potential, unpredictable, Oscar outcome.

Two of the most unpredictable categories this year are Best Picture and Best Director. They rarely go separate, and not since 1996 has a film won all 3 major guilds (SAG, PGA, DGA) and lost the Oscar. We predict this year will be a repeat of ’96 and “Boyhood” will ultimately dethrone “Birdman.”

Here are our FINAL picks for each category:

Boyhood-Ethan-Hawke-Ellar-ColtraneBest Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Whiplash
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything

What Will Win: Boyhood

What Could Win: Birdman

What Should Win: Whiplash

We’re torn 50/50 between “Birdman” and “Boyhood,” two incredibly ambitious films that were able to survive the slime of this bizarre awards season. A “Whiplash” win is incredibly unlikely, if it were to win it may be the biggest surprise in Oscar history, but it was a perfect film.

birdman-alejandro-gonzc3a1lez-ic3b1c3a1rrituDirecting
Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher

What Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman

What Could Win: Richard Linklater – Boyhood

What Should Win: Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel

Losing PGA was awful for “Boyhood,” because “Birdman,” with a stellar ensemble, was always going to take home SAG. After that DGA just felt like “Birdman,” since the film works more as a directorial achievement than “Boyhood.” It is still a 50/50 battle between the two. We’re predicting a split, and while the opposite version of this split is likely as well, we’re predicting this specific split.

theory-of-everything-stephen-hawking-movie-trailerActor in a Leading Role
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton – Birdman

Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game

Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

What Will Win: Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

What Could Win: Michael Keaton – Birdman

What Should Win: Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

Eddie Redmayne swept up the pre-cursors. His performance as Stephen Hawking was so emotionally strong. Many questioned a newcomer, as young as Redmayne is, winning this award when he’ll have so many other opportunities in his career. Well, Keaton is older, but I believe Keaton will have many other opportunities as well, and that the Academy knows this.

Julianne-Moore-in-Still-AliceActress in a Leading Role
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon – Wild
Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night

What Will Win: Julianne Moore – Still Alice

What Should Win: Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl

Julianne Moore will win this one practically unopposed. Felicity Jones may have a distant chance, but Moore is pretty much locked here. We loved Pike in “Gone Girl.” Voters that were against Moore said that “Still Alice” just wasn’t a good enough film. But we’re talking about the performance here, not the film, and we think Moore was good enough to leave a lasting effect.

whiplash_13Actor in a Supporting Role
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
Edward Norton – Birdman
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Robert Duvall – The Judge
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher

What Will Win: J.K. Simmons – Whiplash

What Should Win: J.K. Simmons – Whiplash

This award belonged to J.K. Simmons the moment “Whiplash” premiered at Sundance in January of 2014.

boyhood6f-9-webActress in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Emma Stone – Birdman
Laura Dern – Wild
Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
Keira Knighley – The Imitation Game

What Will Win: Patricia Arquette – Boyhood

What Should Win: Patricia Arquette – Boyhood

Patricia Arquette is locked here. Anything else would be a major surprise.

video-undefined-24475D3100000578-421_636x358Writing Adapted Screenplay
Anthony McCarten – The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle – Whiplash
Graham Moore – The Imitation Game
Jason Dean Hall – American Sniper

Paul Thomas Anderson – Inherent Vice

What Will Win: The Theory of Everything

What Could Win: Whiplash

What Should Win: Whiplash

If any category is more unpredictable than Best Picture and Best Director, it’s this one. Experts on Gold Derby are torn between “The Imitation Game” and “Whiplash.” “Whiplash” has a lot of passionate supporters, “The Imitation Game” won the WGA (where “Theory” was disqualified and “Whiplash” ran in Original), and the there’s “The Theory of Everything” a solid screenplay with its own passionate supporters. We’re going out on a limb picking “Theory” here, but its just the kind of “surprise” that would happen.

1389264416_The_Grand_Budapest_Hotel-oo5Writing Original Screenplay
Wes Anderson, Hugh Guinness – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Dan Gilroy – Nightcrawler
E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman – Foxcatcher

What Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

What Could Win: Birdman

What Should Win: Birdman

After “The Grand Budapest Hotel’s” strong showing with pre-cursors, its hard not to see Wes Anderson giving his speech on Oscar night. “Birdman” and “Boyhood” have always been possible, and if “Birdman” takes this you better believe its coming for Best Picture next, but we think “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is just too strong for either film to take down.

Meet-the-Cast-of-Characters-of-Wes-Andersons-The-Grand-Budapest-Hotel-0Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
The Imitation Game

What Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

What Could Win: Interstellar

What Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Every time I see a screenshot of “The Grand Budapest Hotel” my jaw is on the floor in awe of the film’s art direction. “Interstellar” has its small group of passionate supporters that could pull for it here, but this one is almost locked to “Budapest.”

Birdman-1Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

What Will Win: Birdman

What Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

What Should Win: Birdman

Some say “Birdman’s” one-shot routine is merely a gimmick, well it kind of is, but it is a very successful gimmick. Every tracking shot is fluid, and the lighting is gorgeous, this is easily Lubezki’s greatest work. It is really hard to see any other film winning this award.

boyhood-by-richard-linklater-1093447-TwoByOneFilm Editing
Boyhood
Whiplash
American Sniper
The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

What Will Win: Boyhood

What Could Win: Whiplash

What Should Win: Whiplash

What “Birdman” is to cinematography, “Boyhood” is to editing. Making sure 12 years, you know, doesn’t feel like 12 years. Who knows how difficult the process was, but the result is perfect. “Whiplash” represents strong editing in the classic sense and “Whiplash” beat out “Boyhood” for the ACE Eddie award. So either is still in this, but we’re giving the edge to “Boyhood.”

theory of everything stephen hawking eddie redmayne felicity jonesMusic Original Score
Jóhann Jóhannsson – The Theory of Everything
Alexandre Desplat – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Hans Zimmer – Interstellar
Alexandre Desplat – The Imitation Game
Gary Yershon – Mr. Turner

What Will Win: The Theory of Everything

What Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

What Should Win: The Theory of Everything

This one almost came down to personal preference, because its kind of between “The Theory of Everything” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” at this point. “The Grand Budapest Hotel” will have a very strong showing in the technical categories, but we think this is where it can be easily over-taken by Jóhannsson’s beautiful score.

Selma Movie (1)Music Original Song
“Glory” – Selma
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” – Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me
“Lost Stars” – Begin Again
“Everything is Awesome” – The Lego Movie
“Grateful” – Beyond the Lights

What Will Win: Selma

What Could Win: Glenn Campbell: I’ll Be Me

What Should Win: The Lego Movie

Another fairly unpredictable category. We have given the edge to “Selma” pretty much just because everyone else has, and it also took home the Golden Globe earlier this year. “Glenn Campbell” can easily surprise though, but we wouldn’t really be surprised if any of the nominated films won this category.

3027812-inline-i-6-adam-stockhausen-grand-budapest-hotelCostume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Maleficent
Inherent Vice

What Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

What Could Win: Into the Woods

What Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Not many of these costumes were particularly flashy. Our original thought was any film could win this technical category, but we give the edge to the strong wardrobe of “Budapest,” not just for being strong, but for the strong presence the film will have at the Oscars receiving many other technical wins.

hr_The_Grand_Budapest_Hotel_2320140306104723Makeup and Hairstyling
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
Foxcatcher

What Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

What Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

What Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” has some very strong conventional make-up work for both aging, and period. “Guardians of the Galaxy” has some more flashy work, and really any of the 3 films could win this Oscar. But just like with costumes we have to give the slight edge to “Budapest.”

interstellar_trailer_McChonaugheyVisual Effects
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
X-Men Days of Future Past
Captain America: The Winter Soldier

What Will Win: Interstellar

What Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

What Should Win: Interstellar

“Interstellar” has a small group of passionate supporters, and a small group of passionate detractors. It has the strongest effect work of any of the other nominees, but “Guardians” also as a small group of passionate supporters. Still we give “Interstellar” a strong edge here.

American-Sniper-poster-bannerSound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Unbroken

What Will Win: American Sniper

What Could Win: Birdman

What Should Win: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

We have to give something to the highest-grossing Best Picture nominee right? “American Sniper” is bound to show up somewhere, and there may just be enough passion behind it to give it Sound Editing. Looking back at how controversy hurt “Zero Dark Thirty” and it was still able to take home the same award, we can see “American Sniper” having a slight edge to “Birdman” and “Interstellar.”

whiplashSound Mixing
Whiplash
Birdman
American Sniper
Interstellar
Unbroken

What Will Win: Whiplash

What Could Win: Birdman

What Should Win: Whiplash

This is sound we’re talking about right? “Whiplash” moved to its own sounds. Even people who don’t fully understand the concept of sound mixing can recognize the strong mixing of “Whiplash.” “Birdman” took home ASC’s for sound though, some maybe people will be more impressed with the films ability to keep strong sound in constant motion.

how-to-train-your-dragon-2-toothless-hiccupAnimated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Big Hero 6
Song of the Sea
The Boxtrolls

What Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

What Could Win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

What Should Win: The Lego Movie

Still shocked by “The Lego Movie’s” absence here. “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” is the strongest of the five films, but its likely not many voters have seen it. “How to Train Your Dragon 2” seems like the obvious choice, receiving strong reviews and a strong box-office.

2014CitizenfourSnowdenArtificialEyeDocumentary Feature
Citizenfour
Virunga
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth

What Will Win: Citizenfour

What Could Win: Virunga

What Should Win: Citizenfour

“Citizenfour” seems like that great film that is destined to get snubbed. It wasn’t until last minute we decided to sneak it back into the top spot over “Virunga.” It is highly likely any of the five nominated films could win this award though.

Ida - 5.jpgForeign Language Film
Ida
Leviathan
Wild Tales

Timbuktu
Tangerines

What Will Win: Ida

What Could Win: Leviathan

What Should Win: Ida

“Leviathan” dethroned “Ida” for the Golden Globe, so “Leviathan” has a strong band of supporters. “Ida,” having been nominated for Cinematography, has probably been seen by more voters though. This is another category though where Gold Derby Experts were torn between any of the five films.

feast-is-disneys-short-film-featuring-a-boston-terrier-dog-video-previewShort – Animated
Feast
The Dam Keeper
The Bigger Picture
A Single Life
Me and My Moulton

What Will Win: Feast

What Could Win: The Dam Keeper

What Should Win: Feast

“Feast” tore out the hearts of anyone who saw “Big Hero 6” in theaters. It is easily the most popular of the pack, and will likely give Disney another win in the animated short category.

shortliveactionwin_15Short – Live Action
The Phone Call
Parvaneh
Boogaloo and Graham
Aya
Butter Lamp

What Will Win: The Phone Call

What Could Win: Parvaneh

What Should Win: Parvaneh

“Parvaneh” is arguably the stronger of the five, but this award could literally go to any five of these excellent shorts. “The Phone Call” wins the popularity contest, having a more recognizable cast.

crisis-hotline-veterans-press-1-1024Short – Documentary
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
White Earth
The Reaper

What Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

What Could Win: Joanna

What Should Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Short categories are ridiculously hard to predict. We went with “Crisis” which has the edge on Gold Derby, likely for its lasting effect. Again, with this category, and any other Short category, anything could win.

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