There will undoubtedly be some major snubs when the Oscar nominations are announced January 16th. Major front-runners have often been pushed aside. Some say this is because voters won’t pick the obvious choice so they can help an underdog get in.
Unfortunately this helps to eliminate a lot of major front-runners. (Which is said to have happened last year to Ben Affleck for “Argo.”)
So really though, no one is completely safe. So here are list of some obvious choices that could get the booth on the morning of the 16th.
The film is a juggernaut right now that has often appeared in many conversations regarding the best picture winner. So this snub is unlikely, but still possible.
HerIt would be a major snub if Spike Jonze’s unconventional love story missed the cut. From the beginning it has been called a critical darling, but not a film that would easily take to the Academy’s taste buds. Similar to last year’s snub for “Moonrise Kingdom.”
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Coen brother cautionary tale has taken some hard hits with the Producer’s Guild and Writer’s Guild. It has been a lock for awhile on many prognosticators lists, but it should no longer be a lock on anyone’s list. It’s likely the film will be snubbed entirely.
The Wolf of Wall Street
The controversy, while not helping, hasn’t destroyed this films chances entirely. Leonardo DiCaprio received a Golden Globe despite all the infamy on Sunday night. Still, it wouldn’t be completely out-of-the-blue if the film misses the best picture nomination.
This film has been considered a guaranteed nomination since it landed in theaters, but it has never quite been a front-runner in any category. “Captain Phillips” is a great film, but does it have proper support to acquire the necessary percentage of #1 votes with the Academy?
Bubble Films: Nebraska, Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena, Blue Jasmine, August: Osage County
Possible Surprises: Fruitvale Station, Rush, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
It’s hard to imagine that the director of the front-running film won’t make the cut, but it’d wouldn’t exactly be an unimaginable snub. Controversy was stirred up earlier this season stating that McQueen wasn’t a very likable character, and more people will be inclined to vote for other underdogs here.
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Again, “Captain Phillips” has never been a front-runner. Greengrass jumped through the DGA’s hoops however, and managed to score the most important nomination yet. If anyone on the DGA’s list is forgotten though it’ll be between him and other bubble contender Martin Scorsese.
On the Bubble: Spike Jonze, Her; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Joel/Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Possible Surprises: John Wells, August: Osage County; Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club; Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
The Best Actor race is jam packed, so yes this could happen. With it being such a crowded category people have been substituting many of the other contenders with bubble contenders. Truth is, with this category, anyone can go, and despite a universal prediction for a sealed place, even Ejiofor is in trouble.
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
“Dallas Buyers Club” has been receiving an unforeseen amount of love for various critics groups and guilds, but it’s still hard to tell if the film will land with the Academy. The award win with the Golden Globes really does help McConaughey, but again this category is stacked so he could miss his chance again this year.
On the Bubble: Robert Redford, All is Lost; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Possible Surprises: Joaquin Phoenix, Her; Christian Bale, American Hustle; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler; Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
I’d say Sandra Bullock has a stronger chance of a nomination here than Blanchett, despite Blanchett’s universal love from all directions including a Golden Globe win last weekend. It’s unfortunate that “Blue Jasmine” may be left out everywhere else, and it’s possible Blanchett gets left behind for some underdog contenders.
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
She’s the third slot for everyone’s predictions, but she is very vulnerable. “Saving Mr. Banks” has received loved, but not nearly enough love to make it a viable contender in any category.
Judi Dench, Philomena
It was interesting to see how much attention the Globes gave the film, nominating it for Picture and Screenplay. Although it is still possible that “Philomena” is left off of too many people’s ballots to contend here.
On the Bubble: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County; Amy Adams, American Hustle
Possible Surprises: Adele Exarchopoulous, Blue is the Warmest Color; Brie Larson, Short Term 12; Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers ClubIt was a huge surprises when BAFTA snubbed “Dallas Buyers Club” in both this category and their lead actor category. But it kind of put into perspective how vulnerable every contender in this category is, especially Leto being the pre-determined front-runner so early in the game.
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Even though he has shown up on nearly every single nomination list, Michael Fassbender isn’t winning anything for his performance in “12 Years a Slave.” The Momentum isn’t really there, despite being the second strongest contender in the category. Wouldn’t be surprised if he was left out.
On the Bubble: Daniel Bruhl, Rush; Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Possible Surprise: Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Will Forte, Nebraska; James Franco, Spring Breakers
June Squibb, Nebraska
Another bizarre category. Although Lawrence and Nyong’o really don’t feel like they’ll get snubbed here. Squibb, usually taking the third slot, could easily be taken out of the game if “Nebraska” isn’t loved enough.
On the Bubble: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler; Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Possible Surprises: Scarlett Johansson, Her; Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis; Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Lea Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color
“Before Midnight” has received a lot of attention for it’s screenplay in this category, but the film hasn’t really been showing up anywhere else besides that.
The Wolf of Wall Street
It’d be a tragedy, but they could just avoid this film altogether.
On the Bubble: Captain Phillips, Philomena, August: Osage County
Possible Surprise: The Spectacular Now, Lone Survivor, Blue is the Warmest Color
Inside Llewyn Davis
Missing the WGA nomination surprised everyone. It shows that “Inside Llewyn Davis” is weak, despite getting some attention here from critics groups. So a miss could easily happen.
This screenplay is a juggernaut. If “Her” misses everywhere else, it still will likely show up here, but considering that it’s an unconventional, non-Academy-oriented movie, it could miss everywhere.
On the Bubble: Blue Jasmine, Nebraska, Dallas Buyers Club
Possible Surprise: Gravity, Enough Said, Rush