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Awards: Final Oscar Predictions 2013

Oh what a year! So many great films and an Oscar lineup that is a little bizarre at times. This has been one of the best years for movies in a long time. So as much of a hobby it is of mine to predict this kind of stuff, I will say don’t  just go out and watch the award-winners. Watch all that was nominated and the films that were snubbed which wouldn’t have been any other year.Anyways, it has come down to this, I have predicted the Oscars for four years now and each year I’m understanding a little more of the Academy mannerisms (though I don’t think any will ever fully unlock that box.)

Best Picture
The following movies can have a solid case made for them: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook. A little less solid case could be made for Les Miserables, Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild.
               The momentum shifted from Les Miserable’s great audience, ensemble and box office performance to the most critic award winning film Zero Dark Thirty to the most-nominated film Lincoln and then to the most pre-cursor awards won: Argo. Pre-cursors are the biggest, each of the nominees have people who love them, and those who hate them. The postively agreed upon film is Argo and it shows, as the film has now won SAG, Golden Globe, DGA, PGA, WGA, Scripter and more.

The Winner: Argo
The Runner Up: Lincoln
The Spoiler: Life of Pi

Best Director
Usually one of the easiest to predict, and if Affleck was nominated he’d be a shoe in. But the Academy was at a loss without the DGA to guide where the Director nominees should go. Since Affleck isn’t in it looks to be between Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee. Both have won some pre-cursors. I finally fall on Ang Lee for this category, because if anything Life of Pi was a strong directorial achievement and Spielberg has proven himself to good for the Academy in the past. It’s real close though.

The Winner: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
The Runner Up: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
The Spoiler: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor
Ever since Lincoln came out Daniel Day-Lewis has been the man to beat and no one is going to beat him here.

The Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (Locked In)

Best Actress
Another 1 vs 1 category where many people predicted Lawrence at the release of Silver Linings Playbook have moved over to predict Emmanuelle Riva in AmourRiva is the oldest woman to be nominated in the category and may not have another chance, while we will see Lawrence here soon again. Tough call, however the Academy loved Silver Linings Playbook giving it 4 acting nominations, it be odd for them not to give the film any awards. So I predict this to be its only award.

The Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
The Runner Up: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
The Spoiler: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Supporting Actor
Another complicated category that is De Niro vs. Jones vs. Waltz. Tommy Lee Jones has had his name show up at most of the pre-cursor awards. SAG is important here, and Waltz wasn’t nomianted for a SAG even though he won the Golden Globe and many other pre-cursors. People think De Niro will get it and Riva will get Actress as result and this will be the one to go to Silver Linings Playbook. I have a hunch that the Academy will show more love for Django Unchained here though.

The Winner: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
The Runner Up: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln 
The Spoiler: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway.

The Winner: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Locked In)

Animated Feature
There has been a lot more love for Brave lately, even though it is arguably one of Pixar’s weaker films. Critic awards were mostly split between Frankenweenie and Wreck-It RalphWreck-It Ralph has split the latest pre-cursors with Brave. For this category I’m feeling Wreck-It Ralph.

The Winner: Wreck-It Ralph
The Runner Up: Brave
The Spoiler: Frankenweenie

Foreign Feature
The film within these five films that got an Picture and Director nomination as well.

The Winner: Amour (Locked In)

Adapted Screenplay
What made Lincoln so fantastic was Tony Kushner’s screenplay, and if its going to win anything other than Daniel Day-Lewis it’s going to be in this category. Unfortunately with Argo taking the award from it at the WGA and Scripter Awards, I can’t see Lincoln prevailing here.

The Winner: Argo
The Runner Up: Lincoln
The Spoiler: Silver Linings Playbook

Original Screenplay
Django Unchained has been taking most of the pre-cursors in this category, but Amour has a Director nomination so maybe the Academy really loved it, and its screenplay could get recognized here. Lots of Oscar bloggers are predicting it, so could happen. I’m going to stick with Django though.

The Winner: Django Unchained
The Runner Up: Amour 
The Spoiler: Zero Dark Thirty

Cinematography
Until recently Life of Pi had been winning all the pre-cursors and was almost a lock in for this category. Then we have the often-snubbed genious Roger Deakins looking to be snubbed again for Skyfall. Deakins will have his time, but not for Skyfall. 

The Winner: Life of Pi
The Runner Up: Skyfall
The Spoiler: Lincoln

Film Editing
The editing in Argo and Zero Dark Thirty is something to admire, the seamless transitions between scenes and cuts. The emotion from these films comes from the editing almost primarily, and since Argo is likely to win Picture it’ll be the one of the two to sweep this up, plus it won the ACE.

The Winner: Argo
The Runner Up: Zero Dark Thirty
The Spoiler: Life of Pi

Costume Design
Another tough category. Les Miserables will probably be receiving some early attention for Makeup and Sound Mixing so could it build up to this? Costumes weren’t as impressive in the film though. Feels more like Anna Karenina or Lincoln.

The Winner: Anna Karenina
The Runner Up: Lincoln
The Spoiler: Les Miserables

Documentary Feature 
Pretty certain on Sugarman here. Not locking it though.

The Winner: Searching for Sugarman
The Runner Up: How to Survive a Plague
The Spoiler: 5 Broken Cameras

Makeup and Hairstyling
This is between Les Miserables and The Hobbit. The makeup is probably better in The Hobbit, but Les Miserables should be setting itself up nicely to win this after a Sound Mixing win. Plus the Academy is clear that their ceremony will honor other musicals.

The Winner: Les Miserables
The Runner Up: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Spoiler: Hitchcock

Original Score
Life of Pi’s score has been winning a good amount of pre-cursors, but Skyfall could scoop this win up with a win in the Original Song category. I’m sticking with Pi. 

The Winner: Life of Pi
The Runner Up: Skyfall
The Spoiler: Argo

Original Song
I wouldn’t call Adele’s “Skyfall” a locked in win, but its close and should beat Les Miserables. Although maybe Les Mis will have more momentum than expected? 8 nominations means that Academy liked it.

The Winner: “Skyfall,” Skyfall
The Runner Up: “Suddenly,” Les Miserables
The Spoiler: “Pi’s Lullaby,” Life of Pi

Production Design
Another tough call, it’s Les Mis vs. Anna Karenina vs. Life of Pi. With all of Pi’s technical achievements it could scoop this up to, but I may be shooting for the stretch here with Les Miserables. 

The Winner: Les Miserables
The Runner Up: Anna Karenina
The Spoiler: Life of Pi

Sound Editing
Life of Pi did really well with the MPSE Awards. It’s as good a cal as any.

The Winner: Life of Pi
The Runner Up: Argo
The Spoiler: Skyfall

Sound Mixing
The difficulty behind mixing Les Miserables will most likely get it this award, even the people who don’t fully understand sound mixing will realize doing audio work on live-singing can’t be easy.

The Winner: Les Miserables
The Runner Up: Argo
The Spoiler: Skyfall

Visual Effects
Got to be Pi. 

The Winner: Life of Pi (Locked In)

Animated Short
Close between Paperman and Adam and Dog, Oscar bloggers say Paperman, but they are rarely right in the short categories.

The Winner: Paperman
The Runner Up: Adam and Dog
The Spoiler: Head Over Heels

Live Action Short
Tough call, going with what other people are saying.

The Winner: Curfew
The Runner Up: Asad
The Spoiler: Death of a Shadow (Dood van ee Shaduw)

Documentary Short
Could really be any of them, King’s Point would be the super spoiler.

The Winner: Open Heart
The Runner Up: Inocente
The Spoiler: Mondays at Racine

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