Film Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions – November

Film Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions – November Update

Believe it or not a lot has happened in the last month, but not nearly as much as what is going to happen next month. It took me awhile to get these new predictions to you because I really wanted to do it right this time. Using mathematics and statistics I compiled a pretty solid list of what the Oscar Nominations will look like next year.

When predicting the Oscars 4 things are important. The films release date (later the better, unless it is too late like Promised Land another film that had this issue was The Way Back). The second is the distributor, The Weinstein Company has had a film win the last two Best Picture Oscars because the campaign the hell out of their films. Each distributor campaigns, but when a distributor has more than one film on the Oscar circuit you want to consider which one will the campaign more for. The Weinstein Company has The Master, Django Unchained, and Silver Linings Playbook and Warner Brothers will have Argo, The Hobbit and The Dark Knight Rises.

Third, the box office. If a film is too underground it will be forgotten, for example I don’t expect much for The Sessions. Fourth, the reviews what could save Beasts of the Southern Wild from being underground, an early release, and Fox Searchlights possible focus on Hitchcock during the Oscar season could be its ecstatic reviews.

With all this data in mind I have collectively compiled what I believe the Oscar Nominations will look like. There is still things to learn about upcoming films so much can still change.

Best Picture
Argo
Django Unchained
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

RUNNER UPS
Flight
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

RUNNER UPS
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Kathyrn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

RUNNER UPS
Denzel Washington, Flight
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Martin Freeman, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Tom Hanks, Cloud Atlas

 

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

RUNNER UPS
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Maggie Smith, Quartet

Supporting Actor
Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

RUNNER UPS
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Sacha Baron Cohen, Les Miserables
James Spader, Lincoln
Joel Edgerton, Zero Dark Thirty

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained

RUNNER UPS
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Scarlett Johannson, Hitchcock
Jennifer Ehle, Zero Dark Thirty

Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

RUNNER UPS
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Hitchcock
The Sessions
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
This is 40

Original Screenplay
Django Unchained
The Impossible
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

RUNNER UPS
Flight
Promised Land
Amour
Looper
Hope Springs


Animated Feature
Frankenweenie
From Up on Poppy Hill
Le Tableau
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It-Ralph

Cinematography
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Film Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Original Score
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Production Design
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Visual Effects
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi

That’s it for now, express your opinions/thoughts/concerns below!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s